Jñānābha‎, Vol. 50 (1) (2020), 189-206

MODELING AND ANALYSIS THE EFFECT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON THE SPREAD OF CARRIER DEPENDENT INFECTIOUS DISEASES

By

Shikha Singh1 and Ashish Omar2
Department of Mathematics, PPN Postgraduate College, CSJM University
Kanpur -208001, Uttar Pradesh, India.
Email:sshikha22976@yahoo.co.in and ashishomar999@gmail.com
(Received : May 07, 2019 ; Revised: June 09, 2020)


Abstract

In this paper, a nonlinear SIS model is considered to study the effect of global warming on the spread of carrier dependent infectious diseases. In the model, we deal with five dependent variables, namely, the density of susceptibles, the density of infectives, the density of carrier population, the amount of carbon dioxide in the environment causing global warming and the global warming temperature. In the model, it is assumed that the density of carriers increases with constant growth rate as well as proportional to the global warming temperature. The amount of CO 2 in the environment increases due to human population activities as well as natural factors. It is also assumed that the global warming temperature is proportional to the amount of CO 2 in the environment. The model is studied and investigated with the help of stability theory of differential equations and numerical simulation. The investigation shows that, if global warming temperature increases, then the density of carrier population and the spread of carrier dependent infectious diseases increase.

2010 Mathematics Subject Classifications: 37C75, 92B05
Keywords and phrases: Global Warming, SIS Model, Stability, Carriers.