EFFECTS OF TEMPERATURE RISE CAUSED BY GREENHOUSE GASES ON THE SPREAD OF FOOD-BORNE DISEASES: A MODELING STUDY
By
Shikha Singh1, Shubham Chaudhry2,* , Maninder Singh Arora3 and Rajeev Kumar Singh4
1,2,3Department of Mathematics, PPN College, CSJM University, Kanpur, Uttar Pradesh, India-208001
4Department of Mathematics, Pratap Bahadur Post Graduate College, Pratapgarh City, Pratapgarh, Uttar Pradesh, India-230002
Email: sshikha22976@yahoo.co.in, ∗ chaudhary.shub4@gmail.com (Corresponding author), manindersingharora kn04@csjmu.ac.in, rajeevpbh5959@gmail.com
(Received: October 24, 2024; In format: November 24, 2024; Revised: December 13, 2024; Accepted December 27, 2024)
DOI: https://doi.org/10.58250/jnanabha.2024.54233
Abstract
The proliferation of bacterial diseases poses a significant threat to human health. Carriers, such as houseflies transport pathogens of diseases from the environment to human food contaminating them and leading to the acquisition of these diseases by humans through ingestion of contaminated food. The increase in global average temperature, driven by greenhouse gas emissions, positively influences the growth rate of carrier population. In this study, we develop a nonlinear mathematical model to evaluate the impact of global average temperature on the growth rate of carriers and, consequently, on the transmission of food-borne diseases. The model incorporates five dynamic variables: carbon dioxide concentration, global average temperature, susceptible human population, infected human population, and carrier population density. We assume that the carrier population density follows a logistic growth model with temperature-dependent intrinsic growth rate and carrying capacity. Our analysis reveals that the number of infected individuals rises with increasing global average temperature. The study establishes a significant correlation between global temperature rise, carrier population growth, and the spread of food-borne diseases, exacerbated by human activities
2020 Mathematical Sciences Classification: 34C60, 34D23, 92D30, 92D40.
Keywords: Mathematical model, Food-borne diseases, Carbon dioxide emissions, Global average temperature, Carrier population.