MODELING THE IMPACT OF ANTHROPOGENIC TEMPERATURE RISE ON THE DYNAMICS OF CARRIER-DEPENDENT INFECTIOUS DISEASES
By
Ranjeet Kumar1 and S. N. Mishra2,*
1,2Department of Mathematics, B.N.D. College, C.S.J.M. University, Kanpur, Uttar Pradesh, India-208004
Email: 1507dr@gmail.com, *s.n.mishra kn05@csjmu.ac.in (Corresponding author)
(Received: November 13, 2025; In format: November 16, 2025; Revised: December 27, 2025; Accepted: December 30, 2025)
DOI: https://doi.org/10.58250/jnanabha.2025.55230
Abstract
Anthropogenic activities are the primary drivers of the rising global average temperature, profoundly affecting carrier population and thereby intensifying the spread and dynamics of carrier-dependent infectious diseases. In this study, we develop a non-linear mathematical model to investigate the impact of temperature rise on disease transmission. The model incorporates four key dynamical variables: global temperature (elevated due to human-induced factors), the densities of susceptible and infected human populations, and the density of the carrier population. The carrier population is assumed to grow logistically, with its intrinsic growth rate influenced by rising temperature and its carrying capacity affected by human activities. The model is analyzed using the stability theory of differential equations and supported by numerical simulations based on biologically relevant parameter values. The results indicate that increasing global temperature accelerates carrier population growth, which, in turn, contributes to a rise in the number of infections within the human population.
2020 Mathematical Sciences Classification: 34C60, 92D40, 37N25, 92D30, 37N30.
Keywords and Phrases: Mathematical model, Carrier population, Anthropogenic activities, Global average temperature, Numerical simulation.